Oil today

WTI Oil forecast 2022

Oil forecast today short and long term trend

Oil forecast analysis using temporal cycles by the American economist William Delbert Gann.

Historical WTI oil chart

Oil forecast today: March 2022

Since the weekly cyclical expiration of December 31, 2021, the oil market has made a major recovery that has brought prices close to the historical record of July 18, 2008 at $ 145.66.

The considerable increase of returns in relation to the time unit, has increased the Drift of the WTI (angle 1X1) which in the slide is barely visible with a red vector originating from the weekly minimum of 27 August 2021.

In the week of March 11, 2022, the 1×1 angle is worth $ 117.82, a level also reached by the 2X1 angle (yellow vector) from the weekly low of December 03, 2021.

It should also be noted that the oil market has been bullish for 13 weeks without any negative infringements.

The expiring temporal cycles are March 11 and March 25.

During the week of 11 March, Oil broke the previous top again upwards, confirming the short term positivity.

Upcoming resistances $ 131.64; $ 139.33.

Only the achievement of $ 91.60 would determine a new negative lateral course: supports for retracements in the $ 116; $ 103.70 area.

The bullish trend will also have to be monitored in the next time expiration of March 25, 2022, to understand if we will find ourselves in a final top.

Medium-term Oil price trend

The medium-term dynamics of WTI Oil has turned bullish since the monthly Set Up of January 2022

As described in last year’s report, between October-November 2021 and January 2022 there was a double swing that generated large positive returns.

It can be seen in the slide just above that the negation of the November monthly Set Up in the temporal cycle expired in January led the prices to break the subsequent 1X8 and 1X16 resistances and only the static resistance of Octave, radiated as a horizontal line in yellow, stopped temporarily the advance of prices.

The next resistances are in the $ 132; $ 145.50 area.

The next monthly Set Up to be monitored coincides with the month of April 2022.

Long-term Oil price forecast

The long-term dynamic is positive despite there have been partial attenuations of quarterly returns due to octave static resistances in the $ 54 and $ 73 area.

The next resistances that will slow the ascending trend are on the 1X16 angle in the $ 132.30 area and the historical top at $ 145.66.

The next quarterly Set Up coincides with the third quarter of 2022.

Investing and trading in Oil today

Financial markets present areas of heteroskedasticity, that is a not constant variance of returns, and financial shocks generate asymmetrical behavior.

In fact, it can be noted that the implicit volatility of the Options in this period varies from 60-70% despite the strong positive surge in prices.

While in bearish zones such as in February 2020 or November 2021, volatility has often gone beyond 120%.

Despite this, it has been shown that returns generate linear autocorrelations, especially in areas of constant volatility or in so-called clusters.

The American economist William Gann was able, through a linear geometric mathematical model, to correlate the three dimensions of the market: price-time-volume.

Through this model it was possible to identify the Drift and the Variance Rate through a simple formula with one unknown.

The same economist identified important market cycles within which the Set Up can be identified, that is the price-time crossings that generate shocks or changes in the trend.

The Top Trader software© was created to correctly apply the Gann technique and is available in this blog.