crude oil may 2020

Oil price forecast today prices trend

Oil price forecast today crude oil prices trend by the technique of the American economist W.D. Gann.

Oil price medium term forecasts

Between the first months of 2019 and February 2020, oil exchanges have shown a fluctuating dynamics.

Although crude oil prices have shown robust returns in the first months of last year, with continuous bullish breaks, in May-June 2019 prices dynamics has alternated in a “narrow range”.

The Zero ascending 1X2 angular support, highlighted on the slide by the yellow upper vectors, has given full support for the entire period between January 2016, June 2017 and October 2018.

However, the corrective force has broken downwards this ascending vector in November 2018, transforming the support into resistance: in April 2019 oil prices have generated a top in ​​$ 66.60 area.

A driving force was going to born but it was rejected to make some space for a lateral phase.

In previous reports we had indicated the November Set Up as a medium-term signal for a re-start of crude oil prices.

The triple bottom of June, August and October 2019 has preceded the start of a more definitely directional phase but the 1X2 dynamic resistance descending from the top of October 2018 (illustrated in yellow in the photo) has slowed down the directional push by returning exchanges on the lows of the lateral phase in $ 51 area.

In previous articles it was indicated that an eventual return under this area would have generated a powerful corrective phase. This fact was also confirmed by the time signal expiring in February 2020.

The bearish breakdown of $ 50 area has confirmed this negativity in the oil market.

During the following month of March, the prices have broken all the angular supports, reaching a minimum of $ 19.27. Unexpectedly they were gone to zero in April and a quotation of – $0.63 has been recorded on the Nymex crude oil.

As you can see in the slide, the 1X2 Zero angle (the last yellow vector starting from the bottom) represents a powerful support. Although it was broken downwards, then was recovered at the close, at $ 18.84.

The excess of negativity in the period between February and April is observed in the time price dynamics that has led oil to test 4X1 descending angles, that is with returns 4 times its drift or 1X1 angle. This excess can be also observed in the implied volatility on the options which have touched levels of 120-140%.

The next medium-term time signal will expire in May-June 2020.

In May the bullish breach of $ 29.45 will indicate a new positive mid-term phase.

However, a new monthly Set Up will alternate in June, so it will be necessary to monitor the prices dynamics also in that period.

Although the most acute negative phase seems to have passed, the expectation of an alternation with a fluctuating trend will be obvious. This trend could be fluctuate in a lateral band whose wideness will be strong enough in the first period and then gradually attenuate, together with the volatility of returns.

Upcoming resistances: $ 33.18; $ 38.

Medium-long term oil trend

In the quarterly time frame, the bearish breach of the 1X4 Zero angular support is more evident. This support had maintained the uptrend for the entire period between March 2018 and December 2019.

In the first quarter of 2020, the bearish break has brought prices to the next Zero support in $ 20 area.

Upcoming angular resistances: 45 $.